Es momento: Mr. Peña Nieto set to become the PRI’s first democratic president
Mario Vazquez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
An estimated 100,000 supporters packed Mexico City’s Azteca football stadium – the third largest of its kind – to watch the young, telegenic former governor of the State of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto, deliver the closing arguments of his almost certain victorious presidential campaign. The crowd chanted “Yes We Can” as the young, energetic politician argued for why he could deliver change to Mexico.
“I’m part of a generation that has grown up in a democracy, and I aspire to be a president who governs respecting liberties, listening to everyone and including the voices of all,” he argued in front of the rambunctious crowd.
And while the voices of students have largely rallied behind Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a popular former mayor of Mexico City, which is arguably the second most important political position in Mexico, Mr. Peña Nieto remains on the verge of recapturing Mexico for the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (Institutional Revolutionary Party – PRI), who saw its federal power collapse in 2000 after 71 years of uninterrupted, authoritarian rule. But, as the old political adage goes: this is not your grandmother’s PRI. And, perhaps most importantly, this is not your grandfather’s Mexico.
The more famous politicians of the 1990s largely adopted the ‘neo’ label to offset the failures of their parties’ pasts. President Bill Clinton argued on behalf of a new Democratic Party, and later Tony Blair made a similar pitch in the United Kingdom with New Labour. And in 2008, President Obama rode a wave of popular sentiment fed up with traditional political games, and he successfully ascended to the presidency under the very promise to bring real change. Peña Nieto has nearly accomplished the same and will ultimately do so on July 1st, but his inherited situation went far beyond the popular whims found in modern democracy. In fact, Mr. Peña Nieto is on the verge of becoming, arguably, the first democratically elected president of Mexico from the PRI. And in large part, his brilliant campaign successfully projected an image of ‘change’ from within the confines of a very anti-change political agent: the PRI.
In 2000, Mr. Vicente Fox led the Partido Acción Nacional (National Action Party – PAN) to victory, breaking the 71-year presidential stranglehold of the PRI. And in 2006, Mr. Felipe Calderón kept the presidency under the PAN’s control by pulling off a stunning victory against Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (The Party of the Democratic Revolution – PRD). The 2006 elections also witnessed another surprising event – the PRI placed third in the presidential elections. It would be inaccurate to say that the PRI lost its entire political support in the post-2000 era. After all, the PRI remained strong at the local and state level. But, just six years ago, the PRI found itself beaten again on the national level and with little hope of a comeback. Mr. Peña Nieto, however, is ready to secure that once illusive, but inevitable comeback.
According to most polling data, Mr. Peña Nieto has never been in any serious trouble during the election. In fact, the real competition is found between the PAN and the PRD for the unimportant second place finish. But, in all likelihood, the PAN will be the most significant loser on July 1st, because the PRD remains in firm control of Mexico City. In any case, Mr. Peña Nieto’s rise to the presidency involved a brilliantly organized campaign strategy, and one that addressed his perceived weaknesses directly. (See the imbedded YouTube videos to better understand his candidacy and its image)
The political party that Mr. Peña Nieto represents transformed Mexico in a variety of ways, but it also wrote the ‘how to’ handbook on building an unstoppable clientilistic apparatus under the guise of democracy. In 1968, the stronghold of the PRI and its intolerance for opposition led to killing of between four and three thousand students protesting against the regime. Official statistics vary as the truth remains clouded and repressed behind a substantial government cover-up. Nevertheless, Mr. Peña Nieto was only two years old during the massacres.
Today, Mexico is suffering from another type of tragedy – a drug war led by President Felipe Calderón, and the PAN, that has already claimed the lives of nearly 60,000 Mexicans. And while Mr. Peña Nieto has remained a strong advocate against the cartels and their activities, he has argued for a new approach to the so-called war. Within this context, Mr. Peña Nieto recaptured the political scene for the once lost PRI. Most importantly, he has captured the mantra of democracy for the political party that dismantled the very idea for 71 years.
As he stated in front of nearly 100,000 supporters on Sunday, he has grown up within a democratic Mexico. And in Mr. Peña Nieto’s more mature years, he witnessed the waning power of his political party.
However, the PRI no longer monopolizes all levels of government. It remains entrenched at the local and state level, but there is a considerable opposition poised to win when the PRI falters. And in Congress, the PRI no longer controls both houses of government.
The PRI used to wield an institutional monopoly at all levels of government, but now Mexico has developed institutional independence across the board – and most importantly, it has developed an independent Supreme Court. The country also looks outward more than ever after signing a variety of free trade agreements.
But, the greatest instrument that differentiates this PRI from its former self is found with Mr. Peña Nieto. For the PRI, he is the central figure. Mr. Peña Nieto has essentially constructed the new PRI’s image – one that favors democracy, individual rights, and economic freedoms. And he did so without being handpicked by a generation of entrenched, clientilistic party leaders in the ‘smoke-filled’ rooms that had come to define the pre-2000 PRI.
The New PRI will ultimately recapture a very different Mexico than it once controlled. And while Mexico has transformed into a more institutional and democratic regime, it is plagued by increasing levels of violence and a general mistrust of government absent during much of the PRI’s former rule. Mr. Peña Nieto will become the first democratically elected president from the PRI, but his subsequent actions will determine whether he just employed the mantra of democracy to restore the previous authoritarian regime.
This is, in fact, a new PRI in a very different Mexico. But in 2006, no one was talking about the return of the PRI. And in 2012, with that inevitability in place, Mexico’s institutional democracy may face its greatest challenge yet. Es momento
